關鍵字:中國 經濟體 美國
對于已經躍升為全球第二大經濟體、且持續快速成長的中國,無論是商業世界或是全球媒體,都不得不伏首稱臣;不過中國也很容易被用以制造危言聳聽,無論是其廉價勞工、仿冒產品、政治體系、稅收制度、官方主導五年計劃….等等,對美國人來說都是深具文化與社會隔閡的遙遠外國話題。
今日的中國已經是美國政府公債的最大海外買主,這雖是事實,但美國總統大選在即,這個議題很難不被政治人物利用,引發美國民眾認為中國若是來討債、可能會使美國一蹶不振的恐懼心理,并將美國的高失業率歸咎于中國。顯然美國人對中國都有一種“精神分裂”式的看法,會依據目前輿論熱門話題的走向,切換中國是 “好”或“壞”的兩個極端形象;但因為很多事情背后的復雜性,很多真相其實是未被揭露的。
在筆者與產業界人士的談話過程中,總是會被他們豐富的見識與深刻的全球性觀點所震懾;而如同EETimes讀者們所看到的,在過去的一年半以來,有關中國的議題多次出現,以下是一些我們報導過的重點摘要:
1. 對中國是科技產品“制造商”的描述,雖然仍然沒錯,但已經快要過時了;中國已經快速轉向成為技術的“設計者”。
2. 據說中國目前有超過500家無晶圓廠設計業者,也許數字有點灌水,卻是一個很明顯的趨勢;排名前二十大的中國無晶圓廠設計業者,在IP核心、設計能力以及對先進制程的使用能力上,早已與美國硅谷的同業者們不相上下。
3. 自2008年底的全球金融風暴以來,北京政府已經取代美國的風險投資業者,成為世界最大金主;中國官方給予其國內無晶圓廠設計業者的龐大支持是空前的,包括各種資金補貼以及扶植政策。
4. 別再形容中國是個獨 裁國家,該國是由不同種族背景的人民所組成──就像過去的蘇聯;不過中國不同城鄉之間的差距很大。
5. 許多西方世界的半導體業者都已經進入中國深耕當地市場,包括建立設計據點;如同恩智浦半導體(NXP)CEO所言,該公司“實際上是一家中國公司”。
6. 成功半導體廠商像是臺灣芯片設計業者聯發科(MediaTek),已經開始有效利用中國的大量軟件工程師人才,以助力其手機芯片業務。而因為具備與中國在地理、語言與文化上的接近性,使得臺灣在中國市場扮演要角。
7. 不過在中國設置設計團隊并不能保證一定會成功;例如博通(Broadcom)與Trident在當地都有DTV SoC設計團隊,但成績似乎一直都不如聯發科與晨星(MStar)。
8. 大多數中國廠商還是以國內市場為主要焦點,但也有越來越多開始涉足全球市場;有位來自中國的業界朋友最近說:”在中國,全球化并非一個趨勢,而是本地廠商的業務策略。”
9. 中國目前無疑仍是一個中央集權的國家,但也別忽視中國各地方政府的力量;中國不同省份通常有自己的產業發展計劃(以及偏好的技術類別)與專責機構。
10. 最后,中國逐漸崛起的中產階級影響力是不容小覷的;根據一項2011年的消費性電子使用情況與支出調查,與巴西、印度、俄羅斯、法國、德國、日本與美國相較,中國的消費者是 3D電視、智能手機等最新式消費性電子產品的最積極買家。
以上有關中國的摘要是隨機列出,并沒有重要性的分別;而筆者今年的重點工作,就是去挖掘中國市場的現況,探詢目前在中國市場的本土與西方廠商在技術與業務發展上的看法,以及與中國當地的工程師社群面對面接觸,了解他們對中國與全球市場的觀點。而筆者也要在此宣布自己的新職務──EETimes首席國際特派員 (Chief International Correspondent),未來會特別著重中國市場的一手報導。
隨著科技產業重心移往中國,EETimes美國版也將積極跟著趨勢前進;筆者不會馬上就搬到中國,但會定期親自前往該地到處看看,并與當地的產業界人士交流。對于曾經隨著家人外派而移居東京、美國硅谷、巴黎與紐約等地的筆者來說,這樣一個新任務正是我所夢寐以求、躍躍欲試的…如果你也是時常在中國、美國與歐洲等地來去的產業界朋友,歡迎一起交流心得!
Why China?
Junko Yoshida
NEW YORK – We all pay abject lip service to China. The business community and the media are equally in thrall to the world’s second largest – and fastest growing economy.
But China’s also a handy device for fear mongering.
Cheap labor, fake chips, counterfeit DVDs, the Communist Party, reeducation, all those central government-led 5-year plans…China strikes us foreign and distant, culturally and socially speaking.
Further, China today is the largest foreign buyer of US government debt. That’s a fact, but in an election year, it’s a fact that fuels fear of China calling in our debt and bringing America to its knees. That catastrophe is unlikely, but it doesn’t forestall politicians – and much of the U.S. public – from blaming China for every lost job in America.
It’s clear that we have a schizophrenic perception of China. We conveniently switch back and forth between two images of China, as we see fit, depending on the hot topic at the moment. Between the two polar views of China, however, many stories – with layers of complexity – remain untold.
As I talk to people in our industry, I am constantly amazed how much they know and how insightful their global views are. In our interviews and reporting at EE Times and EE Times Confidential over the last 18 months, China inevitably came up again and again. Here are just some sample of threads on China we’ve picked up.
1. Portraying China just as a “manufacturer” of technology products, while still true, is passé. China is rapidly rising as a “designer” of technology.
2. Some say there are more than 500 fabless chip companies in China. While that’s an inflated number, there is an unmistakable trend. The top 20 China fabless companies are now on equal footing – in terms of IP cores, design skills and access to advanced process technology – with any fabless company in Silicon Valley. (Find the names of more than 80 Chinese fabless comanies here. )
3. Since the global financial crisis in late 2008, Beijing bureaucrats have replaced U.S. venture capitalists as the major funding source. The Chinese government has given its fabless companies unprecedented access to capital, including subsidies, grants and other incentives.
4. Never paint China as a monolithic country. The country consists of people with diverse ethnic backgrounds – just like the Soviet Union once was. The inequality of different regions – between big cities and villages in the country side – is unimaginably huge. Like warlords in Afghanistan, some provincial governors are powers unto themselves.
5. Many leading chip companies in the West already have established a strong presence in China with their design teams in tow. As NXP CEO Rick Clemmer said, NXP today is “practically a Chinese company.”
6. Successful companies like MediaTek in Taiwan have effectively mined the vast amount of software engineers in China to bolster their mobile chip business. Taiwan’s proximity to China – in geography, language and culture – is definitely playing a role here.
7. Installing a design team in China, however, is no guarantee of success. Both Broadcom and Trident famously had their DTV SoC design teams in China. Neither came up with a successful product, while MediaTek and MStar ate their lunch.
8. Most Chinese companies remain focused on the domestic market. But they look increasingly to the global market. As a colleague in China recently said, “Globalization is not a ‘trend’ in China. It’s a ‘business strategy’ for Chinese companies.”
9. There’s no question that China remains under strong control by the central government. But never underestimate the power of municipal and local agencies in China. They often have their own agendas (even their own technology preferences) to expand the economy within their own regions.
10. Last but not least, let’s not forget the growing affluence of the middle class in China. According to a 2011 Accenture survey focused on usage and spending on consumer electronics technologies in eight countries (Brazil, China, India, Russia, France, Germany, Japan and the United States), Chinese consumers were among the most enthusiastic purchasers and users of the latest consumer technologies including 3-D TVs and smart phones.
I listed above items in a random order, jotting notes as thoughts popped into my head. In short, I’ve probably left out a lot.
My goal this year is to be less random and get a better grip on things and fill in the left-out stuff . For example: what’s happening in China (broadly); what technology and business concerns confront both Chinese companies and Western companies in China today; what does the engineering community in China look like; what are Chinese engineers looking for in the domestic and global markets, etc. I’m happy to report that as of Wednesday (May 9th), my new role at EE Times is Chief International Correspondent – with a strong emphasis in China.
As the industry-base has moved to China, EE Times will be moving, too -- aggressively.
I won’t be actually moving to China right away. But until I do so, I’ll be in and out of China regularly, poking around, ruffling (I hope) a few feathers. Whether you happen to be in Beijing, in New York, in Tokyo or in Paris over the next few months, drop me a note at junko.yoshida@ubm.com. Let’s synchronize our watch and meet up.
As I step down from being EE Times’ editor-in-chief, I’ll report to Alex Wolfe – EE Times’ new brand director. Anyone with an institutional memory should recognize his name. Alex is the newshound who broke the Pentium FPU bug story at EE Times in 1994. He returns to EE Times with a wealth of ideas and multimedia skill set. In the 1990’s, I remember Alex as the toughest news editor in this industry. He’s been known to gut a cub reporter with nothing sharper than a blue pencil. I’m looking forward to the challenge again.
I also want to thank Karen Field, senior vice president of content at UBM Electronics, who played an instrumental role in taking the first brave step toward making the China assignment possible.
For someone like me who has moved dwellings (and husband) and pursued reporting assignments from Tokyo, Cupertino and San Mateo to Paris and New York, the new position is a dream come true. It’s a job I had long lobbied for and a role I plan to relish.